Policy-guided trillions of insurance funds are expected to aid A shares. Which stocks will they buy?
Regulatory authorities have encouraged new moves to enter the market.
The CBRC news report said on the 9th that the CBRC is actively studying to increase the regulatory proportion of equity assets of insurance companies.
Some insurance companies have said that once the relevant regulations are implemented, they will “overweight” the equity asset allocation level.
If the upper limit of the insurance equity investment ratio is raised to 40%, it will bring up to 1.
7 trillion incremental funds.
In the second half of the year, risk capital may increase the defensive nature of portfolio positions, increase the allocation speed of blue chip stocks with mandatory consumption and low estimates of dividends, and actively pay attention to the opportunities of state-owned assets reform.
The 7 trillion yuan of insurance capital entering the market will be weighed by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. The latest research on new policies for insurance fund investment aims to increase the proportion of securities investment, promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the capital market, and further optimize the structure of insurance asset allocation.
The general direction of increasing the equity ratio of insurance companies’ equity assets is to give insurance companies more investment autonomy under the principle of prudent supervision, and to better leverage the long-term investment and value investment advantages of insurance funds.
Most insurance companies believe that the upper limit of the proportion of insurance equity investment may increase to 40%.
According to the forecast of the non-bank financial research team of the Great Wall Securities Research Institute, if the proportion of insurance equity investment increases to 40%, based on the data at the end of the first quarter of 2019, each increase in insurance market capital will directly bring 170.5 billion yuan.Increased capital, leveraging the secondary market.
Grinding from this will bring 1 if 10 pieces are lifted.
7 trillion incremental funds.
An investment director of an insurance company in North China said that the equity investment and preferred stock investment supplementing insurance funds have gradually increased, and some institutional equity investments accounted for 25% -28% of the total assets, close to the 30% ceiling.
From the perspective of future major asset allocation trends, non-common stock investments such as preferred stocks will continue to increase, and there is also room for improvement in equity investment. Therefore, it is necessary to raise the overall upper limit of equity investments.
”The increase in the insurance company’s equity asset supervision ratio can better promote insurance companies to help increase the proportion of internal direct financing and serve the real economy. At the same time, in the long run, it will help improve the expected return on insurance funds.
After the proportion is increased, insurance companies can allocate more equity assets of high-quality companies within the allowable range of solvency at the bottom of the cycle. At the same time, it also provides greater space for increasing the allocation of non-common stock assets such as preferred stocks.
“The person said.
Chuancai Securities Yang Lingwen said that A shares gradually out of the upward trend of shocks this year, and combined with multiple policy benefits, the equity asset investment ratio of insurance funds increased additional space, and the use of insurance funds in the proportion of A sharesAs it improves, the role of its “stabilizer” will become more apparent.
In the first quarter of 2019, the surplus of the use of insurance funds increased by nearly 4% compared with the end of 2018. The scale of investment in stocks and securities investment funds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan.
If this growth rate can be maintained, it is worth looking forward to the increase of insurance capital in the second quarter of 2019 and the previous.
Insurance funds are optimistic about the rebound in the third quarter. Some insurance executives said that if the upper limit of equity investment is increased, it will inevitably boost market confidence.
However, the “loosening” of insurance and equity investments will not bring funds into the market in the short term, and it should be a process of gradually dating more incremental funds.
Zhu Junsheng, deputy director of the Insurance Research Office of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the extent to which insurance companies will take advantage of the new “loosening” policy will depend on market conditions and the judgment of insurance companies on market trends.
Chuancai Securities analyst Deng Lijun believes that the current trend of A shares is weak, mainly due to pre-holiday risk aversion and other factors.
In the short term, the State Council meeting decided to introduce “double innovation” into in-depth measures and promote the revitalization of Northeast China, promote market-oriented legalized debt-to-equity swaps, and increase financial opening trials, which will continue to boost the risk appetite of the market.May rebound after oversold.
China Life Asset Management believes that A-shares have returned to a low position in the previous period, and the general trend has not changed.
At present, there are still some uncertainties in the macroeconomic trend, and the market is waiting to see a strong mood. Under certain new strong variables, the market is unlikely to have a systematic high upward trend, and the probability of narrow changes converges.
An investor in a small and medium-sized insurance company admitted that after the global monetary policy has gradually entered a 北京桑拿洗浴保健 period of relaxation, the space for domestic monetary policy will also gradually be opened. Combined with its estimation and gradual restoration of risk appetite, it is expected that after the stock market shock bottoms, it is expected to be two.The end of the quarter and the beginning of the third quarter triggered a shift in the rebound market.
It is expected that a considerable amount of insurance capital will still enter the market in the second half of the year, and some sectors will benefit from the “supply” of insurance capital.
Talking about the operation ideas of insurance capital in the second half of the year, insurance capital is ushering in the investment strategy adjustment process.
In the end, the return on insurance capital investment will continue to improve under the promotion of various policies and 天津夜网 market performance; restructuring, adjustment of the internal restructuring of insurance capital investment structure, there is still room for equity investment to rise, and the allocation of long positions will be further strengthened.
Or, while “overweight” high-yield stocks are predicting the future trend of A-shares, insurance capital is also preparing for “overweight” entry into the market.
From the perspective of research on listed companies in the past five months, 60 insurance companies have conducted a total of 182 investigations.
From the perspective of the listed companies being researched, East China Pharmaceutical, Hikvision, Lixun Precision and other stocks are favored.
From the frequency of research, China Life, Yangtze River Pension, Ping An Pension Insurance, Qianhai Life Insurance and other surveys have accumulated more than 10 investigations.
From the perspective of the research sector, insurance institutions mainly focus on high-quality growth stocks such as 5G, chips, domestic software, and low-estimation blue chip stocks such as big finance.
Source of data: Li Lifeng, analyst of China National Securities Securities, believes that insurance capital still prefers stocks with good liquidity, high dividend yield and strong profitability. First, insurance funds compete in volume and prefer liquidity-rich stocks.
Judging from the 509 stocks that have been insured in the last 6 months, the average market capitalization is $ 30.5 billion, accounting for only 113 of the total number of shares.
The US $ 100 million is extremely high. Secondly, the stocks with high dividend yields are also ready to be favored by the insurance capital. The annual dividend yield of the heavy capital stocks of the insurance capital reached 3 in 2018.
3%, which is also higher than the lowest 2 of A shares.
4%; Third, the value-added profitability of insurance capital, relatively stable performance of stocks.
The average ROE (TTM) of risky heavy stocks is 8.
5%, much higher than the market average of 2.
But as far as individual stocks are concerned, opinions of insurance companies of different sizes have diverged.
Some small and medium-sized insurance companies believe that the small and medium-cap market opportunities are converging, and they hope to hold some small- and medium-cap stocks. “In the initial stage of the market, small-cap stocks always move first.”
However, in terms of technical operations, for some small and medium-cap stocks with high estimates, we think that wait-and-see may be delayed.
Some large insurance companies are relatively bearish on small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks. They believe that the next stage of GEM stocks may diverge. In the future, they will focus on emerging industry stocks with differentiated earnings growth and continue to deploy blue chip stocks such as banking stocks.
In terms of industry allocation, China Life Asset Management believes that the heavy industry leader will continue to be the light industry.
In terms of specific industry choices, breeding, non-bank, banking and other sectors are still recommended. Recently, there have been some new changes in the price of cyclic products. In addition to strong topics such as thinning, the cyclic products will continue to be strong.Control the investment value of the theme to strive for continuous improvement.