Hengshun Vinegar (600305) 2018 Annual Report Comment: The performance was slightly higher than expected. The 18Q4 channel inventory control is the main reason

Hengshun Vinegar (600305) 2018 Annual Report Comment: The performance was slightly higher than expected. The 18Q4 channel inventory control is the main reason

I. Overview of the event Hengshun Vinegar released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved total operating income in 201816.

94 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.

87%.

Realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

04%.

Proposed cash dividend of RMB1.

20 yuan (including tax).

  Second, the analysis and judgment of performance slightly exceeded expectations, Q4 revenue, profit growth accelerated the company’s total operating income in 201816.

94 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.

87%, equivalent to Q4 single-quarter operating income4.

580,000 yuan, ten years +7.

34%, an improvement from the first three quarters of the previous quarter.

Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was initially realized.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

04%, equivalent to Q4 single quarter net profit attributable to listed companies.

86 ppm, at least -36.

56%, the major drop is mainly due to the company’s government land acquisition and storage compensation at the end of November 1.

US $ 5.7 billion led to higher non-recurring gains and losses and increased the number of groups. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by +16 in 18Q4.

97%.

In general, the company’s 18-year performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the revenue growth in the 17-year annual report was not completed + 13%, which is attributable to the net profit of the listed company’s shareholders or + 20% of the operating target.

Product side: Focusing on the two main businesses of “vinegar + cooking wine”, the vinegar structure upgrade continued to advance, the rapid volume of cooking wine reported mergers and acquisitions, and the company’s condiment business achieved revenue15.

28 trillion, ten years +10.

41%.

In terms of segmentation, the vinegar revenue was 11.

63 trillion, ten years +12.

49% (sales +8.

83%, ton price +3.

36%).

Among them, black vinegar revenue was +9 for ten years.

59% (of which high-end vinegar +15 twice.

07%), white vinegar achieved revenue 1.

63 trillion, ten years +13.

27%; cooking wine revenue has increased significantly, and revenue in 18 years1.

940 thousand yuan, ten years +26.

84% (sales +33.

42%, ton price -4.

93%).Overall, the company’s vinegar and cooking wine’s share of condiment revenue in 18 years further increased to 88.

75%, an increase of 3.
.

05 singles, at the same time showing the continuous advancement of the vinegar product structure upgrade and the rapid volume of cooking wine business, indicating that the company is actually implementing 深圳桑拿网 the “both vinegar and wine” brand development strategy and promoting the “Hengshun + Beigushan” dual-brand operation andThe product category structure is optimized, and the differentiation and outstanding selling points of the series products are clear.

The upgrade of the vinegar structure promoted the improvement of the overall gross profit margin, and the significant reduction in asset disposal income dragged down the net profit margin. Gross profit margin: Thanks to the promotion of the vinegar product structure upgrade, the company’s vinegar category has continued to rise in the context of the continuous rise in prices of raw materials such as packagingProduct gross profit margin increased by 2.

02 single, which drove the company’s overall gross profit margin increased by 1.

63 units; Net interest rate: The gross profit margin level and the period cost release efficiency are both improved (the company’s period expense expenditure in 18 years is 24.

85%, a decrease of 0 from 17 years.

A total of 45, of which sales / management (plus R & D expenses) / financial expense ratios were reduced by 0.

26/0.

18/0.

01 single), but suffered from a significant reduction in asset disposal income (the company’s revenue from asset disposal revenue in 2018 was -0.

1%, a significant decrease of 3.
.

46 units), the company’s net interest rate fell to 17.

98%, a decrease of 0 from 17 years.

24 units.

The short-term growth trend does not change. The long-term good logic. From the perspective of channel tracking, the core reason for the 18Q4 company’s revenue end is that the company actively controls the channel inventory before raising prices.

Therefore, after the price increase of some products in 19Q1, during the three-month transition period, the channel’s ability and initiative to increase inventory are at a high level. Therefore, it is expected that the sales of “opening doors” in 19Q1 is a high probability event, and the revenue growth rate is expected to return to two.
At the same time, starting from last year, the company’s market expense support center of gravity changed from “air to the ground”, which strengthened the landing of Hengshun brand influence and really promoted sales.

The misplacement of basic work in the past caused the stellar marketing promotion shortcomings to be exposed everywhere. Last year, after the company pushed forward the reform of the marketing side, it pushed the market significantly faster, which drove the terminal mobile sales to improve significantly.

It is estimated that the company’s completion of condiment revenue in 19 years will increase by + 12%, and the net profit of shareholders of listed companies after deduction is not difficult to achieve + 15%.

  Third, the investment proposal estimates that the company’s operating income for 19-21 will be 19.

21 ppm / 21.

5.9 billion / 24.

29 trillion, ten years +13.

4% / 12.

4% / 12.

5%; net profit attributable to listed companies is 3.

53 ‰ / 4.

07 ‰ / 4.

610,000 yuan, ten years +16.

1% / 15.

1% / 13.

4%, equivalent to 0 EPS.

45 yuan / 0.

52 yuan / 0.

59 yuan, corresponding to PE is 29X / 25X / 22X.

The overall condiment plate is currently estimated at 50.

49 times, the company estimates that it is lower than the industry. Taking into account the promotion of price increases and product structure upgrades, as well as the significant improvement in terminal sales driven by marketing reforms, it is expected that the company’s performance will grow faster than the industry average in the future, and gradually increase the potential for decline.
In summary, we give a “recommended” rating.

  4. Risk Warning: Increased competition in the industry, higher-than-expected cost or cost growth, surpluses such as food safety issues