AVIC Heavy Machinery (600765) Quarterly Report Review: Focus on the Development of the Main Business and Steady Overall Operation
Focusing on the aviation forging industry, the performance was in line with expectations, maintaining the “Buy” rating in the first three quarters of 2019, and the company achieved operating income44.
390,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
06%; realized net profit attributable to mother 2.
3.0 billion, down 2 every year.
66%; net profit after deductions to mothers1.
950,000 yuan, an increase of 61 in ten years.
The company’s overall operation is stable and its performance is in line with expectations.
Since the divestment of non-main businesses such as new energy, the company has continued to focus on the two main businesses of forging and hydraulic environmental control. We expect the company’s EPS in 2019-2021 to be 0.
39 yuan, 0.
44 yuan, 0.
49 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Excluding incomparable factors, the actual profit has increased in the first three quarters of 2019, and the company’s net profit attributable to its mother has gradually decreased2.
66%, net profit after deducting non-return to mothers increased by 61.
69% was first due to the increase in profits caused by the special timber bankruptcy in the same period last year. At the same time, the data for the same period last year also included the operation of Shixin Company.
Excluding incomparable factors for the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the period increased by 10.
The net operating cash flow decreased, but it was significantly improved compared to the first half of 2019. In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s net operating cash flow was 5,842 million, which gradually decreased by 72.
10%, basically in 2019, the company’s main unit orders increased, increased production investment to ensure order delivery; and some units increased the import of material reserves and other factors, resulting in increased cash payments.
However, the net operating cash flow in the third quarter in a single quarter.
20 trillion, compared with the total net decrease of 61.3 million yuan in the first half of 2019, has been significantly improved, mainly due to the increase in receivables.
Aviation forging leader, focusing on the long-term development of the main business, and maintains a “Buy” rating.
We believe that the 13th Five-Year Plan for National Defense has entered the final sprint stage, and the maturity of defense equipment technology is expected to usher in the peak period of military aviation equipment procurement.
At the same time, the civil aviation industry is also developing rapidly, and ARJ21 regional passenger jets have begun commercial operations.
AVIC Heavy Machinery, as the leader in aviation foundry, is expected to fully benefit from the development bonus of aviation equipment.
What do we expect the company 2019?
2021 will achieve operating income of 61.
7.9 billion, 69.
10,000 yuan, 75.
6.5 billion, net profit attributable to mothers3.
0.6 billion, 3.
4.2 billion, 3.
810,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.
39 yuan, 0.
44 yuan, 0.
Continue to give the company a PE target estimate of 30-32 times in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 11.
57 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk Warning: The growth of military spending exceeds expectations, and the international subcontracting business is worse 杭州夜生活网 than expected.